Domestic price of chicken in the UK - Data and Analysis (2000-2032)

Notwithstanding marked volatility in year-on-year growth, the domestic price of chicken in the United Kingdom is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 7.8% over the five years through 2025-26, to reach 371.2p per kg.The price of chicken can be volatile, whereby movements are susceptible to changes in the cost of production (e.g. grain and animal feed prices), the volume of poultry available on the market, and underlying demand. For instance, the price of chicken fell over the two years through 2016-17 following a reduction in animal feed prices in the years previous caused by bumper domestic harvest of grain and little weather disruption allowed animal feed prices to ease, which in turn lowered the cost of poultry production and eased pressure on market prices charged by producers thusly. Prices continued to fall through 2020-21 as domestic chicken production accelerated in order to keep up with growing demand. Supermarket price wars have also contributed to the declining prices, as the large supermarkets command a significant share of poultry sales in the UK allowing them to influence prices.The COVID-19 pandemic caused an initial fall in chicken prices. Public health measures (e.g. social distancing) brought in by the government effectively saw demand from the hospitality and service sector, a key market for poultry meat processors and wholesalers, drop to near zero overnight, as the statutory temporary closure of restaurants, butchers' shops, hotels and so forth, saw cancellations of poultry meat orders across the wholesale market. In turn, excess supply and a presumably temporary period of lacklustre demand, relative to "normal" levels, are expected to keep restraints on the wholesale price of chicken. However, this trend completely reversed in 2021-22, Record high inflation level brough about by the end of government restriction has seen poultry farmers costs grow rapidly, including in energy and transport costs. This resulted in an expansion of 8.9% in 2021-22 and 13.3% in 2022-23.Inflationary pressure has continued, which has increased feed costs for poultry farmers. As a result, the majority of farmers have passed on higher prices to consumers. According to the ONS, prices reached 328 pence per kg in September 2022, significantly higher than 274 in the same month in the previous year. Feed prices continue to surge because of higher global grain prices. The higher cost of living has caused some customers to reduce weekly consumption. Surging feed costs and inflationary pressure continues to raise costs for poultry farmers leading to a surge in prices in 2023-24. Chicken prices are rising in 2025-26 due to higher feed and production costs.