Consumer confidence index in the US - Data and Analysis (1980-2032)

In 2026, consumer confidence will edge down by 0.6% to 95.17, as households digest higher prices, elevated borrowing costs and shifting trade and immigration policies under the second Trump administration. Survey data through the first half of the year show confidence hovering in the low-90s, with modest month-to-month gains failing to reverse the broader post-2021 downtrend. Elevated interest rates, even after the Federal Reserve's earlier cuts, still restrain big-ticket spending plans, while tariff-driven cost pressures keep consumers wary of future income and job prospects. From 2021 to 2026, the CCI traces a clear arc from post-pandemic rebound to inflation-scarred caution. Confidence surged in 2021 as vaccinations, reopenings and strong job gains boosted households' views of current conditions and near-term prospects. That optimism quickly collided with the sharpest inflation shock in decades, prompting aggressive rate hikes and quantitative tightening that eroded real incomes and dented sentiment in 2022 and 2023, particularly among lower-income households facing higher food, fuel and rent costs. Geopolitical tensions, especially the war in Ukraine and its impact on global energy and food prices, added another drag on confidence, reinforcing a perception of persistent economic uncertainty. By 2024 and 2025, confidence remained well below pre-pandemic norms, with new tariff rounds, bouts of political brinkmanship in Washington and a brief federal shutdown amplifying concerns about prices and policy stability. Overall, the CCI from 2021 to 2026 captures a transition from rapid recovery to a more fragile, volatility-prone environment in which strong employment only partially offsets anxiety about inflation, interest rates and trade policy.